Predictive Modelling of Crime Risks & Probable Entry Point Analysis

ASIS International ACT Chapter presents:

Predictive Modelling of Crime Risks & Probable Entry Point Analysis (PEP)

This presentation will cover crime impacting an organisation operating at more than 4500 facilities across Australia and the security insights and risk modelling the data on those facilities allows. It will also examine the breakthroughs and successes our in depth analysis and modelling has achieved in reducing crime and will share the tools developed in the process.

Predictive Modelling of Crime Risks will examine the 4-Tier Model for Crime Risk Management. Applying that model has consistently reduced robbery in Australia Post outlets for 16 years. It has reliably assessed risk levels and allowed allocation of resources to where risks are higher.

PEP analysis is a tool for assessing a building for its likely points of break in during a burglary. As a visual tool it is useful for demonstrating a valid process of analysis to clients. But it can also be automated for analysis of large numbers of sites. It measures probability of entry in 2 dimensions: 1) Delay or Effort to attack a point and 2) Probability of Intervention in that attack.

The presentation will also examine why we do security. Reducing crime is only a means to an end and not our main reason for being.

About the presenter

Ron Murphy CPP has worked in the security industry for 44 years. He holds qualifications in locks & vaults, physical security, investigations, risk, electronics, explosives, business and management. Ron has had security assignments across Europe and Asia including 2 years with a UN agency. Returning to Australia he resumed analysis of crime risks, especially armed robbery, leading to the development of an award winning 4-Tier Model. Ron has produced more than 1000 security designs, trained security professionals in several countries in security surveying and design, is widely published on security issues and is a highly respected security professional. His passion is producing tools and methodologies to make security advice valid, effective and auditable.